Climate change presents a great threat to the survival of NSW's agricultural based businesses and communities. Industries reliant on natural resources will be the first to suffer the adverse impacts of climate change. The speed and magnitude of climate change will test the ability of NSW's rural communities and businesses to adapt and reduce vulnerability to these changes. Moreover as climate change continues over time, the agricultural sector in NSW that will be in the front-line of impacts due to climate change.

Australia’s relatively low latitude makes it particularly vulnerable through impacts on its scarce water resources and on crops presently growing near or above their optimum temperatures. (Basher and Pittock 1998)

Unless serious action is taken to dramatically reduce greenhouse gas emissions, human activities will continue to increase greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere: doubling pre-industrial levels of CO 2 levels by 2050 (Henessy:1998). Scientific research predicts an associated increase in mean annual global surface temperature of 1.4-5.8ºC by 2100 (IPCC: 2001). The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports that:

CSIRO has undertaken extensive research on projections of future climate change in Australia and its effect on agricultural production. The warming anticipated for NSW by 2050 is projected at 0.5-2.7ºC.
(Hennesey et al. 1998)

In the next 50 years, climate change will result in:

• A decrease in available water resources
• Higher temperatures
• Reduction of area of arable land
• Reduction in crop and livestock quality/output

While there may be some benefits for some crops, the overall impact of climate change will be negative. A major finding in all studies is that a relatively small change in temperature (between 1 oC and 1.7 oC) causes a major change in regional climate patterns.
(CSIRO 2000)

One message is clear, climate change will fundamentally change agricultural production in Queensland.

Rural communities, businesses and their representatives must assess the strength of current planning and policies dealing with climate change and agriculture. To do so, the causes and effects of climate change need to be fully understood throughout the community in terms of economic, social and landscape change.

The summary presented in this report intends to give an indication of the impacts of climate change on agriculture in New South Wales, based on published scientific studies.

Ranges of average annual warming (C) for around 2030 and 2070 relative to 1990. Shaded bars show changes for areas with corresponding shades in the map.

Continued at top of page 2 --->

Climate change and temperature
Increased temperatures are projected to alter crop seasons, increase dairy and beef cattle heat stress and introduce new pest and disease occurrences into NSW.

• NSW 0.5-2.7ºC warmer by 2050.
  (Hennessy et al:2000)
• Increase in number of hot summer days by 10-50% and fewer frosty nights by 20-100% at a rise of 1.7ºC. Greatest warming apparent in winter. (Hennessy:1998)
• Incidence of spring drought doubles across NSW except SE region.
  (Hennessy:1998)
• Increase in fire frequency.
  (IPCC:1998)
• Largest temperature changes are expected on the Western slopes of the highlands, with the smallest changes near the coast.
  (Hennessy:1998)
• Frequency of days above 35ºC projected to increase by 10-50% by 2050.
  (Hennessy et al 1998).
• Higher temperatures will increase the southward spread of cattle tick and buffalo fly.
  (Williams:1985,Basher:1998)

Climate Change and Soils
Climate change will decrease the area of arable lands currently used for agricultural production in NSW.

• Extreme weather events (drought and flood) are projected to occur twice as frequently throughout NSW causing a loss of arable lands through soil erosion and landslides.
  (IPCC:1998)
• Soil moisture decrease due to evaporation from higher temperatures.
  (CSIRO:1998)
• The mean increases in drainage of 6 to 27mm/year represent a substantial potential change in landscape hydrology which is likely to increase risks of salinisation in areas not yet affected and increase rates of salinisation in areas already affected.
  (Howden: 1999b)
• Increased salinisation and alkalisation will occur in semi-arid zones.
  (IPCC:1998)
• Research in Western NSW predicts a decrease in land area suitable for cropping up to a loss of 300,000ha.
  (Howden :1999c)

Figure: Change in the frequency of average soil moisture

Climate Change and Water
Water is predicted to become scarcer. Competition for an
already over allocated water supply will increase the price of agricultural production and place further stress on rivers and ground water systems supporting arable lands.

• Increases in extreme rainfall events (floods).
  (IPCC:2001)
• Increase in algal blooms due to temperature
  increases.
  (IPCC:1998)
• Reduction in flow of major river systems. Murray-Darling, Ovens, Goulbourn and Macquarie River Basin.The latter could lose between 10% and 30% of irrigation water by the year 2030.
  (Hassal et al:1998, Basher and Pittock: 1998)
  
  
  

Specific Findings - CSIRO Research Proj. by Area

Impacts on agricultural sectors

Beef cattle
The frequency of heat stress in Australian beef cattle increased by 40% from 1957-1996, and is estimated to increase by a further 138% by about the year 2050 because of climate change.
(Howden:1999a)

Howden (1999a) predicts an initial increase in temperature and atmospheric CO 2 will increase pasture growth, liveweight gains and improved financial outcomes on the rangelands. However increases in heat stress, water consumption, possible changes in grass
distributions, and increased soil water logging and salinity, especially in marginal grazing lands will offset the initial advantage.
(Howden:1999a)(Reyenga:1999)

Dairy cattle
The dairy cattle industry has already been under intense pressure and change with the deregulation legislation imposed in NSW in 2000. Now the industry faces further changes. CSIRO research predicts:

• By 2030, dairy cows without shade cover will suffer an average milk loss of 280L/cow/year (4% of annual production) and by 2070 between 250 to 400 L/cow/year milk loss (6% annual production).
  (Jones and Hennessy:1999)
• Cows with the highest milk yields will be the first to show symptoms of heat stress.
  (Jones and Hennessy:1999)
  

Wheat
The overall impact of climate change on wheat yields is likely to be negative, with increases in temperature and reduction in rainfall outweighing the positive benefit of increased CO2 levels.
(Reyenga: 1999)

Wheat yields are expected to decrease either with warming beyond 2 ºC or rapidly with reduction in rainfall.
(Howden:1999b)

Climate model studies in North Central NSW also predict the great probability of a reduction of wheat yields due to a projected reduction in rainfall.
(Reyenga:1999)

Under the 'dry' scenario (-20% rainfall) average yields declined (5-53%) resulting in a significant retreat of the boundary from its current position with up to 300,000 ha becoming unsuitable or marginal for cropping. This would have significant repercussions for the industry. Recent climate change scenarios suggest rainfall reductions of about 12%. ( Reyenga: 1999)

Also, the predicted increase in CO 2 levels is expected to reduce grain protein (or nitrogen) contents by about 10-12%. These changes are likely to be quite significant in downgrading grain quality representing a reduction in one to two quality classes (Howden:1999b)

Continued at top of page 4 --->

What can be done?
The vulnerability of New South Wales's agriculture will be determined by community, individual and institutional readiness to help avoid climate change, and to adapt to it.

The speed and magnitude of global warming mean that rural communities have to consider a mix of mitigation and adaptation strategies. A strong government policy to
minimise the threat to rural communities and reduce greenhouse gas emissions is urgently needed. Such a policy must include commitments to the following.

Reducing Australia's greenhouse gas emissions from industrial sources

A dramatic reduction in emissions on a local and global level to protect agriculture from the worst impacts of climate change. In addition government must be lobbied to invest further in the transition to sustainable transport fuels, sustainable electricity generation (solar and wind) and high energy efficient machinery and technology.

Increasing funding for sustainable agriculture research and initiatives.

Sustainable farming practices could minimise the risks of salinisation, soil erosion, loss of soil moisture and other environmental repair costs. Sustainable agricultural planning is needed to determine the viability of the expansion of cropping lands in the Western sector and the expansion of Irrigation districts.

Including the effects of climate change in all future planning decisions for rural NSW

Every policy and planing decision made for natural resources and agricultural planning must seek to reduce rural communities risk from climate change.

Increasing funding for research into climate change impacts and mitigation strategies

CSIRO have produced world class research into the effects of climate change and abatement strategies. Such as methods to reduce methane emissions from livestock. There is almost no new research being funded by government into a better understanding of the impacts of climate change on NSW rural communities.

Expanding river systems rejuvenation

Healthy rivers will be more resistant to the effects of climate change. Water allocations must be planned, especially in irrigation districts, to mitigate the effects of climate change. Environmental flow allocation must be protected to ensure continuing water quality and
river health in the future.

Expanding native vegetation regeneration and halting land clearing rates

Current best practice mitigation for salinisation is the reintroduction of native, stabilising ecosystems. A strongly funded and enacted native vegetation strategy to combat salinisation is needed to reduce the vulnerability of salinity affected farmers in the future. Halting land clearing rates will also lead to a decrease in greenhouse gas emissions.

For more information Contact
Nature Conservation Council of NSW
(02) 9279 2466 or at www.nccnsw.org.au

Greenpeace
(02) 9261 4666 or at www.greenpeace.org.au

Climate Action Network Australia

Join the Farming and Climate Change network by logging on to: www.cana.net.au/farmer/

Produced with assistance from the Myer Foundation.

References
Basher, R. E. & Pittock, A. B. 1998, 'Australasia' (Chapter 4), in The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability, Watson, R. T., Zinyowera, M. C., Moss, R. H. & Dokken, D. J., Cambridge University Press, New York.

Bureau of Rural Resources 1989, Rural Industries: Workshop on Climate Change, Bureau of Rural Resources, Canberra.

Hennessy, P. K., Whetton, P. H., Katzfey, J. J., McGregor, J. L., Jones, R. N., Page, C. M. & Nguyen, K. C. 1998, Fine Resolution Climate Change Scenarios for NSW: 1995-1998, Summary Report, Research undertaken for the NSW EPA, CSIRO Atmospheric Research, Canberra.

Howden, S. M., McKeon, G. M., Reyenga, P. J., Carter, J. O. & Scanlan, J. C. 1999a, Global Change Impacts on Australian Rangelands, Report to the Australian Greenhouse Office, CSIRO Wildlife and Ecology, Working Paper 99/09, Canberra.

Howden, S. M., Reyenga, P. J. & Gorman, J. T. 1999b, Global Change Impacts on Australian Wheat Cropping, Report to the Australian Greenhouse Office, CSIRO Wildlife and Ecology, Working Paper 99/04, Canberra.

Howden, S. M., Reyenga, P. J. & Meinke, H. 1999c, Global Change Impacts on Australian Wheat Cropping: Studies on Hydrology, Fertiliser Management and Mixed Crop Rotations, Report to the Australian Greenhouse Office, CSIRO Wildlife and Ecology, Working Paper 99/13, Canberra.

Reyenga, P.J., Howden, S.M., Meinke, H., and Hall, W.B. (1999) Global Change impacts on wheat production along two environmental gradients in Australia. Report to the Australian Greenhouse Office. CSIRO Wildlife and Ecology, Working Paper 99/12, Canberra

CSIRO 2000, Inquiry into Global Warming, Submission to the Senate Environment, Communication, Information Technology and the Arts Reference Committee, Canberra.

Hennessy, P.K., Whetton,P.H., Katzfey, J.J., Mc Gregor,J.L., Jones, R.N., Page, C.M. and Nguyen, K.C. (1998) Fine Resolution Climate Change Scenarios for NSW: Summary Report. 1995-1998. Research Undertaken for the NSW Environment Protection Authority. CSIRO Atmospheric Research, Canberra.

IPCC. (1998): in Watson, R.T., Zinyowera, M.C., Moss, R.H & Dokken, D.J.(eds)The Regional Impacts of Climate Change. An Assessment of Vulnerability. Cambridge University Press, New York.

IPCC. (2001). WGI Third Assessment Report: Shanghai Draft 21/1/2001, Summary for Policy Makers.IPCC, Shanghai.

Williams, J.D., Sutherst, R.W., Mayward, G.F. et al. (1985). The Southward Spread of Buffalo Fly in Eastern Australia and its Survival Through a Severe Winter. Australian Veterinary Journal, Canberra.

Hassall and Associates. et al. (1998) Climate Change Scenarios and Managing the Scarce Resources of the Macquarie River, Report for Australian Green House Office, Canberra.

Jones, R. & Hennessy, K. 1999, Climate Change Impacts in the Hunter Valley: A Risk Assessment of Heat and Stress Affecting Dairy Cattle, citing Davison et al. 1996, Managing Hot Cows in Australia, QLD Department of Primary Industry, p. 58.

Pittock, B., Evans, D. & Jakeman, T. 1999, Climate Change and Rural Water Supply, CSIRO, Canberra.