Climate Change Impacts in Australia

Impact on weather

A report on Climate Change Risks to Australia’s Coast found that mid-range predictions of sea-level rise this century would mean that “storm events that now happen every 10 years would happen about every 10 days in 2100. The current 1-in-100 year event could occur several times a year." The June 2007 storm in Newcastle that stranded a coal ship on a local beach was a 1-in-100 year scale event -- that strom caused more than 200,000 homes to lose power, thousands of people forced to evacuate their homes, and insured losses exceeded $1.3 billion.

Other studies have investigated the likely increases in heat-related deaths, bushfires and the extent of dengue fever. The warming that has already occured is already changing weather patterns world-wide, including here in Australia. The effects of these changes are far-reaching, and difficult to predict, but some of the uncertainties that researches are trying to understand include changes in oceanogprahy (particularly where ocean currents slow down, due to changes in ocean temperature, this could have a profound impact on marine ecosystems and contribute a feedback impact on weather and precipitation patterns), changes in rainfall, changes in the severity of storm events, and changes in plant and aninal behaviour, brought about by warmer temperatures and shifting rainfall.  The National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility has research programs to help Australia prepare for these eventualities, including programs on emergency management, agriculture, human health and biodiversity. The CSIRO undertakes research documenting observed climate change, as well as trying to forecast what this will mean in the future.

Impact on agriculture and food security 

The Prime Minister’s Science, Engineering and Innovation Council’s report on food security in Australia lists “Vulnerability to climate change and climate variability” as the first of several major challenges facing Australia’s food security (PMSEIC October 2010. Australia and Food Security in a Changing World.)

NCCARF paper’s paper on climate change and food systems in Australia documents the varied but significant impact that higher temperatures, changed precipitation and increased intensity of extreme weather events has already had and is likely to have on Australian primary food production (NCCARF. Food Systems, Climate Change Adaptation and Human Health in Australia). Cropping, horticulture and dairy cattle are particularly vulnerable. NCCARF notes that, “Agriculture uses 66 per cent of Australia‘s water, and food processing a further 1 per cent,” making the agricultural sector extremely vulnerable to changes in rainfall that have been predicted to occur as a result of climate change.

You can read CANA's submission to the National Food Plan here (word doc).

The Murray-Darling Basin Authority (MDBA) has recently funded a series of scientific reviews investigating the impact of climate change on the Murray-Darling Basin, which covers approximately one-seventh of the continent, 85% of Australia's irrigation, and upon which 3 million people rely for water. You can read the final report from November 2010 here (PDF doc).

In Australia - the world's driest habitable continent - agriculture stands to be severely affected by a hotter and more turbulent climate. Global temperatures are predicted to rise 1.4ºC to 5.8ºC by 2100, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Across much of Australia, this translates to higher temperatures, stronger storms, longer droughts and faster evaporation of stored water. Production costs, including insurance, are likely to rise while yields diminish.

As Cyclone Larry's destruction of North Queensland banana crops demonstrated in 2006 and Cyclone Yasi in 2011, extreme weather events and adverse climatic conditions can affect the availability and cost of fresh food. ABS data points to adverse weather as a factor contributing to the rising price of fresh food. In 2005, poor weather and higher fuel costs drove up the prices of potatoes, broccoli, onions and tomatoes, as well as a variety of fruit. Overall, the price of vegetables rose 6.8% and fruit rose 5.8%, contributing to a total increase in food costs of 3.6% over the year to December 2005. ·         From 2007 to 2008, due partly to the multi-year drought, wheat prices in Australia jumped 42% in one year.
Higher fresh food costs will primarily affect vulnerable, low-income communities. There is increasing concern that low income people will be unable to afford healthy food, and will rely instead on low quality, processed foods that contribute to health problems such as childhood obesity. The Cancer Council of Victoria raised their concern about increasing rates of these "lifestyle" diseases in 2004 indicating the need to address this health issue on at a societal level.

The agricultural sector, which accounts for almost one fifth of Australian greenhouse gas emissions, is particularly vulnerable to the effects of global warming.  Changes to rainfall, temperature, storm intensity and drought frequency will increase evaporative water loss, increase soil erosion, stress livestock, damage crops, exacerbate fire risks and imperil fish stocks. This threatens the identity and livelihoods of more than half a million Australians directly reliant on fishing, farming and grazing. Read the CANA report, 'Uncertain Harvest'.

The National Farmers Federation has described climate change as a major risk to farmers this century, with IPCC predictions of a possible increase in global average temperature of between 1 and 6ºC by the year 2070. In 2004, the Western Australian Farmers Federation publicly announced their support of the Kyoto Protocol as a mechanism to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and urged the federal government to ratify the agreement. This significant change in the position of the Farmers Federation is testament to the extreme impacts of climate change, in particular reduction in rainfall, on the agricultural sector.

Impacts on Australia's natural environment

Tropical cyclones and severe storms are likely to increase in intensity as a result of climate change, affecting communities in tropical areas. This could put some of Australia's significant population and tourist centres like Cairns, Broome, Darwin and Townsville, as well as remote communities, at considerably increased risk. Indigenous communities in remote areas will be particularly affected due to existing economic, housing and health vulnerability. The impacts of the Great Barrier reef will be significant.

Alpine ecosystems are extremely vulnerable to future climate changes. This is due to their small geographical extent, high degree of sensitivity, relatively modest seasonal snow cover and depth, and high diversity of flora and fauna, many of which are already threatened. It is predicted that Alpine regions will experience an 18-66% reduction in snow cover by 2030, and a 39-96% reduction by 2070. Such outcomes will have a seriously adverse impact on Alpine regions and their communities, and will greatly increase the risk of fire in sensitive areas previously devoid of fire (ibid).

DCCEE have recently released a summary report on the expected climate change impacts on the Australian Alps. The impacts discussed in the report include dieback of alpine vegetation, invasive species, drying of bogs and wetlands, and changes in water yield, quality and flow regimes due to increased fire, changes in vegetation cover and decreased rainfall. Increasing temperatures will also mean more precipitation will fall as rain, rather than snow, and this will have a profound impact on the snow-dependent Mountain Pygmy Possum and Broadtoothed Rat, and to plant communities. The report predicts that in the highest catchments of the alpine area, the Short Alpine Herbfield will disappear. The Alps catchments contribute nearly a third of the in-flows into the Murray-Darling, so along with the natural impacts, the implications for human settlements are considerable. And speaking of biodiversity, Prof Will Steffen was the first to give evidence this week at the parliamentary inquiry into “Australia’s biodiversity in a changing climate”. The inquiry is being conducted by the House of Representatives Climate Change, Environment and the Arts Committee, was established in June and so far has received 74 submissions.  

The Climate Commission's report The Critical Decade, includes update reports on various regions across the country. Check out their website to find compilations of research on the expected impacts of climate change in your area.