Climate change will damage many industries in Australia which jeopardises hundreds of thousands of jobs, particularly in those sectors most vulnerable to climate change such as tourism and agriculture.

See also: Farming and Rural Communities
See also: Tourism

Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reports that the majority of Australians are employed in the manufacturing (13%) and retail trade (14.6%) sectors, closely followed by property and business services (11.3%). Availability and cost of goods and services will be affected by climate change, with potential indirect impacts on employment levels in these sectors.

While each industrial sector has differing vulnerability to climate change, the Australian Greenhouse Office 2005 report Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability assesses the agricultural sector as the most vulnerable to climate change. This is due to the dependence of agriculture on climate, exemplified by the $3 billion reduction farm output in 2002-2003 as a result of extended drought.

See also: Farming and Rural Communities

Economist Richard Denniss presented the following information on sectorial vulnerability to climate change at the 2005 CANA Conference:

SECTOR	IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE	POTENTIAL COSTS
Livestock Industry	Large areas will experience lower rainfall and more drought events to reduce pasture growth.	$8 billion export earnings annually
Fruit and Vegetable crops	Climate change will adversely affect the viability of the fruit and vegetable industry.	$2 billion export and domestic earnings annually
Perennial Horticulture	Higher water demand and costs. Regions to be affected economically; Riverina and Goulburn Valley.	$2 billion
Annual Broad-acre Crops	Marginal areas will be impacted	$8 billion in export and domestic annually
Fishing	Australia's single largest fishery, $260 million western rock lobster, could be jeopardised.	$2.3 billion annual export earnings
Tourism	Impacts on major ecological sites. Weather patterns could affect major tourism destinations such as Great Barrier Reef, create shorter snow seasons in snow fields and damage rainforests.	Output $32 billion. Accounts for 5.7% of total employment and 11.2% of exports
Increased Droughts		Cost of 2002-03 drought $6.6 billion
Increased Bushfires	Bushfires tend to occur during periods of prolonged dry spells.	23 bushfires from 1967 to 1999 cost $2.5 billion

A recent study by the Allens Consulting Group compared three different greenhouse gas emissions reduction scenarios, and the rate of employment growth between 2010 and 2050. The results are summarised in the table below:

EMISSIONS REDUCTION SCENARIO	EMPLOYMENT GROWTH 2010-2050
Business as usual	38.9%
Early action to reduce greenhouse emissions	38.7% (reduction of 22,000 jobs in 2050)
Delayed action to reduce greenhouse emissions	36.2% (reduction of 271,000 jobs in 2050)

Industries such as mining and energy generation, while not as significant an employment sector as manufacturing, have the greatest impact on climate change. The UNFCCC reports that the energy sector is Australia's major source of emissions, accounting for 57.2% of the national total. The need to make deep cuts to greenhouse emissions provides Australia with the opportunity to build new industries that will drive growth and employment. The Australian Institute found that this would particularly benefit the economies of regional Australia.

ACIL Consulting completed a report on economic indicators for the renewable energy industry. The report found that renewable energy projects - solar, solar thermal, wind turbines, hydro power, wave and tidal power, biomass-derived liquid fuels and biomass-fired generation - employ more people for each unit of power produced than do coal seam methane and coal-fired power stations. This is particularly evident in small scale renewable energy companies.

As reported in the WWF Clean Energy Future report, economic modelling for the Ministerial Council on Energy (2003) shows that a 50% penetration of a low energy-efficiency scenario over a 12 year period would deliver the following substantial economic benefits:

• real GDP would be $1.8 billion higher (+0.2%);
• employment would increase by about 9000 (+0.1%);
• stationary final energy consumption would be reduced by 9% (-213 PJ);
• greenhouse gas emissions from stationary energy would be reduced by 9%.

An AGO-commissioned report by Mark Ellis and Associates found that direct employment levels in the renewable energy industry across Australia increased by 25 percent between 1999-2000 and 2000-01; and approximately 18 percent between 2000-01 and 2002-031.[1]

The Renewable Energy Generators of Australia (REGA) reports that for each direct job in the renewable energy industry, three indirect jobs in manufacturing, supplies, materials, and transport services are created, providing income and employment in the local economy. REGA also quote the following CFMEU figures of the decline in jobs in the conventional generation sector due to deregulation, technological change and productivity gains:

• Employment in the conventional electricity industry fell 32,700 from 1991 to 1999; and
• Employment in the coal industry declined by approximately 30% between 1996 and 2000.

Greenpeace found that if Australian adopted a 10% Mandatory Renewable Energy Target, over 14,000 new jobs in manufacturing, construction and maintenance would be created.

When addressing the social impacts of climate change on employment, it is crucial to include the framework of 'just transition' for workers in fossil fuel dependent industries. The Mineral Policy Institute has been focusing on a "just transition" framework in the Hunter Region in New South Wales, Australia's largest coal mine and export region. The framework links communities, farmers, trade unions, businesses and governments in order to guarantee the following:

• New secure, long-term jobs for people working in industries that are currently being threatened or displaced by the coal industry;
• New jobs in clean energy production, manufacturing, agriculture, services, tourism, arts and research to replace those being lost as the coal industry cuts its workforce;
• Investment in education and training to develop the skills needed for a new economy;
• Investment in infrastructure such as better health and public transport and expanded research and development so new, clean industries and skilled workers will be attracted to the Hunter;
• Investment in repairing the environmental damage caused by large-scale coal mining and poor rehabilitation;
• Investment in clean, decentralised energy technologies to replace the Hunter's coal-fired power - a mix of energy efficiency, wind, solar, with gas playing only a limited transitional role.