Unless action is taken urgently, Australia's most famous natural wonders are likely to be amongst the earliest victims of climate change. Kakadu's coastal wetlands may be inundated, the Great Barrier Reef permanently bleached, and Alpine snows reduced to a fraction of their former range. Thousands of unique flora and fauna species may disappear. This is not only a natural tragedy. More than half a million Australians, especially those in regional areas, rely on tourism for their livelihoods.

Tourism is one of Australia's most significant export earners. In 2004-05, international visitors bought $18.3b worth of goods and services, which accounts for 11.1% of total exports. This is comparable in value to the export of food and livestock (11%) or coal and coke (10.5%) (ABS 2005). As a relatively labour-intensive industry, tourism employed 536,600 persons in 2003-2004, or more than 5% of Australia's working population (ABS 2006).

Climate change is a major threat to Australia's most economically significant natural wonder, the Great Barrier Reef. Generating over $4.228 billion per annum, the reef hosts (hyperlink: 800 tour operators and 1500 vessels (Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, "Tourism on the Great Barrier Reef"). As temperatures increase, the reef will be affected by rising sea levels, changing circulation patterns, changes to ocean chemistry and higher water temperatures (GBRMPA, "Climate Change and the Great Barrier Reef"). While this will have a diverse range of impacts on wildlife and habitat within the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park, the most significant impact is likely to be the widespread 'bleaching' or death, of coral.

In 1998 and 2002, the Great Barrier Reef suffered unprecedented levels of coral bleaching due to high ocean temperatures. In 1998 the inshore reefs were the most severely affected, with 67 percent suffering high levels of bleaching and 25 percent suffering extreme bleaching. In 2002, 60 percent of reefs surveyed were bleached. While inshore reefs were again the most affected, a greater proportion of mid-shelf and offshore reefs bleached in 2002 than in 1998. In terms of bleaching severity, 69 percent of inshore reefs had moderate to high levels of bleaching.[1]

The bleaching events have coincided with two of the hottest years on record.[2] The dire implications for the reef are clear: even under the most optimistic coral tolerance and climate scenarios, coral cover is likely to decrease to less than 5% of current levels on most reefs by 2050.[3]

Researchers at James Cook University investigated the significance of the Reef to tourism in North Queensland. They found that, of the 62% of respondents who considered the reef when choosing to visit the area, 66% might not visit if the reef was dead. The university's study concludes that the loss of the reef, either in reality or perception, could result in Cairns losing up to 40% of its visitors.[4]

Kakadu National Park is another World Heritage Area of outstanding cultural and environmental significance. The park's wetlands are listed under the Ramsar Convention for their importance as waterfowl habitat, and the park hosts more than a quarter of Australian bird species. Rock art on the Arnhem Land Escarpment testifies to the cultural richness of over 25,000 years of human settlement in the region. These and related sites remain extremely important to its current Aboriginal custodians. Approximately 200,000 visitors see the park annually, spending more than $122 million (Department of Environment and Heritage, 2004).

A climate change-induced rise in sea levels would threaten about 90 percent of Kakadu's coastal freshwater wetlands with saltwater intrusion. IPCC's projections of 9 to 88cm global average sea level rise by 2100 will jeopardise the habitat of hundreds of species of birds, reptiles and amphibians.[5] This dramatic change to the ecology of Kakadu may severely diminish its attractiveness to visitors, and threaten the livelihoods of traditional owners and others involved in Kakadu's tourism industry.

Elsewhere in Australia, damage to biodiversity may hinder tourism. The highland rainforest of North Queensland, also a World Heritage Listed Wet Tropics habitat, could be reduced by 50% by a 1°C temperature increase. Animals at risk include the Daintree River Ringtail Possum and the Golden Bowerbird (Rainforest Cooperative Research Centre). $377 million is spent annually by tourists in these regions.

In NSW, the frequency of a serious bushfire season in the World Heritage Listed Greater Blue Mountains Area could increase from every decade to every five years (ABC Online). This threatens the area's remarkable species diversity, which includes 13% of the world's eucalypts (UNESCO). Tourism is also severely threatened by climate change in the Australian Alps, which are likely to experience a decline in area of snow cover of between 39 and 96% by 2070.[6]


Tourism's Carbon Footprint
Tourism in Australia also has a significant "carbon footprint". This is largely composed of emissions from aviation, about half of which is tourism-related, and which contributes 2.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions (UNEP). The number of international travelers is expected to increase about 270% from 594 million in 1996 to 1.6 billion by 2020.[7] If nothing is done to lighten its carbon footprint, tourism will be responsible for very large and escalating greenhouse gas emissions.

2
Bureau of Meteorology "Annual Australian Climate Statement 2005"

3
WWF (2004) "Implications of Climate Change for Australia's Great Barrier Reef"

4
Prideaux, B (2004) "Climate risks to tourism"

5
Australian Academy of Science (2004) "Getting into hot water- global warming and rising sea levels"

6
Australian Greenhouse Office, (2003), "Climate Change: An Australian Guide to the Science and Potential Impacts"

See also: Australian Greenhouse Office, (2004) "Potential Effects of Global Warming on the Biota of the Australian Alps"

7
WWF-UK (1999) "Tourism threatened by climate change"