"All peoples have the right of self-determination. By virtue of that right they freely determine their political status and freely pursue their economic, social and cultural development."

"...In no case may a people be deprived of its means of subsistence"

The right to self-determination is a fundamental principle of international law, enshrined in Article 1 of the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights. For many low-lying states, climate change-induced rises in sea level are a fundamental threat to the exercise of self-determination, and to other internationally recognised rights to economic, social and cultural development.

Rising sea levels and more intense tropical storms will pose the major physical threat to island states. The IPCC forecasts that mean sea levels will rise by approximately 80cm between 1990 and the 2080s. These increases will result in higher maximum sea heights during storms, the intensity of which is forecast to increase by 10-20%. Thus even the small number of islands with significant land area well above sea level will experience more destructive storms.

Island states in the Pacific, Carribean and Indian Oceans will experience significant loss of habitable and arable land, destruction of infrastructure, and loss of groundwater supplies. The IPCC notes that this "is likely to be of a magnitude that would disrupt virtually all economic and social sectors in these countries" (ibid.). If no mitigating action is taken, an estimated one million Pacific Islanders will be displaced from their homes by 2050.[1] This is in addition to the estimated 75 million people displaced from China, India and Bangladesh.[2] In Cuba, an estimated 50,000 would be displaced by a 1m sea level rise (IPCC 2001).

See also: Increases in Refugees

As atoll and low lying states become uninhabitable, their sovereignty will be destroyed. Populations seeking resettlement will be forced to submit to the sovereign jurisdiction of foreign states, including Australia. The right to self-determination will be violated, and the right to development - enshrined in the UN Declaration on the Right to Development - severely compromised. If the experience of other dispossessed or exiled populations is any guide, climate refugees are likely to face discrimination, poverty, low life expectancy, substance abuse and high rates of incarceration.

The loss of island homelands also threatens the cultural rights of islander populations. The linguistic, religious, artistic and cultural characteristics of island populations have developed in a distance and irreplaceable environment. Its destruction threatens the loss of that culture, and is contrary to Article 1 of UNESCO's Principles on International Cultural Co-operation, which state that 'Each culture has a dignity and value which must be respected and preserved', and 'Every people has the right and duty to develop its culture.'

At present, international law does not recognise any obligation on the part of polluter states to justly compensate climate change refugees. It is unclear, in any case, how compensation could be determined. As Barnett et al argue that "there is no common measure by which to compare the value of atoll sovereignty and cultures with the monetary costs of climate change."

Siulia Toloa, who has lived for most of her life on Funafuti, the main atoll of Tuvalu, has spoken about the impacts on the people of Tuvalu:

2
ibid

"Tuvaluans become climate change refugees when the land of Tuvalu becomes uninhabitable. With this last resort adaptation to climate change we Tuvaluans lose our sovereignty, our traditional customs. I think you all know how important these are to us as native landholders. It is not our hope that this will happen, and it will not happen if you and I work together. Doing this will save us both, but particularly my small country of Tuvalu."[3]