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New South Wales (NSW)
Overall, climate change projections for NSW highlight increases in the occurrence of extreme rainfall events for many parts of the state. These events are most likely to occur in summer and autumn months, with the most vulnerable regions being eastern coastal regions, and central and south-east NSW (CSIRO 2004). Specifically, areas within these regions that will experience the most intense rainfall events occur over mountainous terrain, inland from Coffs Harbour (CSIRO 2004).
State rainfall projections under climate change include the following:
- Rainfall is expected to increase in summer and autumn months and decrease in winter and spring months, especially in the south-central and south-west regions of NSW;
- Extremely wet summers are expected to occur up to three times more then present in the south-west;
- Frequency of extremely wet autumns is expected to double in the north-central and south-central regions, and triple in the north-west region; and
- The number of extremely wet days in the north-west is expected to double.
Climate change projections for the year 2030 indicate that the frequency of drought in NSW is expected to increase by 70% under the worst case scenario (decreased rainfall) and decrease by 35% under the best case scenario (increased rainfall) (Hennessy et al 2004). By the year 2070 the range of uncertain is further exacerbated with an increased frequency of drought by more than 200% or decrease by up to 70% respectively (Hennessy et al 2004).
Water for cities: Sydney, NSW
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