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References
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References

1.1 Annotated bibliography
1.2 Additional references



1.1 Annotated bibliography



Author(s) Australian Greenhouse Office (2002)
Title Living With Climate Change: An Overview of Potential Climate Change Impacts on Australia
Source/Reference Report published by the AGO
Nature of source PDF document available on AGO website: http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/impacts/overview/
Brief Description The report has a relevant section on the impacts on water supply and hydrology.
Relevance to topic Water for cities, agriculture and ecosystems
Accessibility Publicly available
Finding/Factoid
  • Decreases in stream flow likely for southern Australia although stream flow in northern Australia may increase. Estimated changes in the Murray-Darling Basin would result in water shortages, particularly in catchments that are already under stress. Perth, Adelaide and inland communities are most vulnerable.
  • The impacts of climate change on salinity are uncertain. Salinity risk may increase or decrease regionally, depending on precipitation changes.
  • Water supplies on atolls and low-lying islands in Torres Strait will be increasingly vulnerable to salt-water intrusion.
  • Climate change may increase eutrophication by increasing the intensity of rainfall events, which will wash more nutrients and chemicals into streams.
Author(s) Bates, BC, Charles, SP, Kirby, M, Suppiah, R, Viney, NR, and Whetton, PH (2003)
Title Climate Change Projections for Australian Capital Territory
Source/Reference Climate change projections and the effects on water yield and water demand for the Australian Capital Territory - Part 1, A consultancy report prepared for ACT Electricity and Water, October 2003
Nature of source Consultancy Report to ACTEW obtained from a contact in Murray Darling Basin Commission
Brief Description Assessment of the likely water yields in ACT catchments under climate change scenarios are necessary for regional planning for water resources by ACT Government and ACTEW. The consultancy report examines the likely climate in the ACT for the next 70 years (Part 1) as well as the implications of climate change scenarios for water yield in the ACT catchments and water demand in the region (Part 2).
Relevance to topic Water for cities
Accessibility Not available in public domain. However, the report is not confidential and therefore accessible. The report in this instance obtained from a contact at Murray Darling Basin Commission.
Finding/Factoid In Part 1 of the report, the regional projections for temperature, rainfall and potential evaporation from global climate models were examined. Subsequently, projections were examined for variation of the rainfall in the Cotter, Googong and Tantangara catchments using statistical downscaling techniques. Climate change projections for the ACT from global climate models indicate:
  • Potential evaporation is expected to increase as a result of increased temperature
  • Mean annual rainfall will change by -9% to +2% by 2030 and -29% to +7% by 2070, with decreases predominating in winter and spring
  • Changes in rainfall will have a significant effect on the frequency of extreme dry and wet years. The effectiveness of rainfall during wet years will be reduced due to higher evaporation rate associated with higher temperatures.
  • Increased frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall are also predicted.
Author(s) Beare, S and Heaney, A (2002)
Title Climate change and water resources in the Murray Darling Basin, Australia: Impacts and possible adaptation
Source/Reference ABARE Conference Paper 02.11, presented at 2002 World Congress of Environmental and Resource Economists, Monterey, California, 24-27 June 2002
Nature of source Conference Paper available online from ABARE Online Shop (free)
Brief Description Simulates the impact of two IPCC scenarios on precipitation and evaporation in the Murray Darling Basin.
Relevance to topic Water for farms
Accessibility Available through ABARE Online (registration required)
Finding/Factoid A moderate increase in the rate of global warming was projected to result in a substantial decline in river flows and economic returns. The reduction in flows in 2050 was between 12 and 25%, depending on the scenario and the catchment. The reduction in economic returns was between $0.8 billion and $1.2 billion, depending on the scenario. Potential adaptation scenarios include increased water use efficiency and development of a water trading market.
Author(s) Bennett, D
Title Climate Change and River Flows in the Murray-Darling Basin
Source/Reference A paper prepared by Hassall & Associates, Sydney for Murray Darling Basin Commission.
Nature of source A discussion paper that summarises two climate change studies namely - The Upper Murray Study and The Macquarie Study.
Brief Description This is a paper presenting the results of two studies, namely the Upper Murray study and the Macquarie study, and a description of the Cotton Rivers study, which is in-progress. The studies report on the likely consequences of climate change on river flows, ecologies and economics in the Murray-Darling Basin.
Relevance to topic Water for cities, Water for farmers, Water for environment.
Accessibility Obtained from Murray-Darling Basin contact implying that the paper is not confidential although unavailable in a public library or domain on the world wide web.
Finding/Factoid Only the findings from the Upper Murray Study are reported here as the findings from the Macquarie Study are already reported separately under the Hassall and Associates references on "Climate Change Scenarios and Managing the Scarce Water Resources of the Macquarie River."

The Upper Murray Study focused on the impact of climate change on snow accumulation and the consequential flows from alpine areas. The study was conducted and reported in 1997 (Schreider et al. 1997). River flows were estimated for the snow-free Goulburn and Ovens Basins and for the snow-affected Kiewa and Mitta-Mitta catchments. The 2030 climate change impact on precipitation results in a:
  • 7% decrease for 'most dry' scenario and +13% increase for 'most wet' scenario for snow free areas
  • 6% decrease for 'most dry' scenario and +13% increase for 'most wet' scenario for snow affected areas.
As temperature increases evaporation, river flow diminishes more than rainfall. The 2030 climate change impact on stream-flow results in:
  • 36% decrease (for snow free areas) and 30% decrease (for snow affected areas) under 'most dry scenario'
  • No change (for snow free areas) and 9% increase (for snow affected areas) under 'most wet scenario'.
The study also examined the frequency of August-October flood and January-March drought events under the climate change scenarios and found that the frequency of flood events would:
  • Increase by 62% (snow free areas) and by 41% (snow affected areas) under 'most wet scenario'
  • Decrease by 82% (snow free areas) and by 83% (snow affected areas) under 'most dry scenario'.
The frequency of drought events would:
  • Increase by 5% (snow free areas) and by 1% (snow affected areas) under 'most wet scenario'
  • Decrease by 36% (snow free areas and snow affected areas) under 'most dry scenario'.
Author(s) Berti, ML, Bari, MA, Charles, SP and Hauck, EJ (2004)
Title Climate Change, Catchment Runoff and Risks to Water Supply in the South-West of Western Australia
Source/Reference Department of Environment, Western Australia
Nature of source Report, available at: http://portal.environment.wa.gov.au/portal/page?
_pageid=55,34507&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL
Brief Description Presents the results of a study into the impact of projected climate change on the water yield of the Stirling Dam catchment, located in the south-west of Western Australia.
Relevance to topic Water for cities and farms
Accessibility Publicly available
Finding/Factoid For the IPCC SRES A2 emission scenario, the study found an 11% reduction in annual rainfall and a 31% reduction in annual water yield for the Stirling Dam catchment by the middle of the 21st century.

There was a non-linear relationship between the change in rainfall and the resulting change in water yield, highlighting the sensitivity of the hydrologic system in the south-west of Western Australia to climate change.

The predicted reduction in runoff from this catchment is likely to be representative of future responses of catchments in the high rainfall zone along the Darling Scarp.
Author(s) Bureau of Meteorology (monthly)
Title Drought Statements (for 8-month period preceding each statement)
Source/Reference Published by the Bureau of Meteorology on a monthly basis
Nature of source Media release available on website: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/drought.shtml
Brief Description The National Climate Centre at the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) monitors Australian rainfall patterns on a range of time-scales from days to years, including analyses of rainfall deficiency. The Drought Statements released by BOM provide the latest information on drought extent and severity in Australia and also allow some tracking of drought trends through an archive extending back to 2000.
Relevance to topic Water for cities and farmers
Accessibility Publicly available
Finding/Factoid Drought Statements are most useful for linking discussion of climate change to current drought events.

For example, for the ten-month period from April to January, a large area through central Queensland and northern NSW has had record low rainfall for the April to January period, with records dating from 1900 [emphasis in the original source].
Author(s) Chiew, FH, Whetton, PH, McMohan, TA and Pittock, AB (1995)
Chiew, F and McMahon, T (2002)
Title Simulation of the impacts of climate change on runoff and soil moisture in Australian catchments - 1995
Modelling the impacts of climate change on Australian streamflow - 2002
Source/Reference Journal of Hydrology 167 (1995) 121-147
Hydrological Processes, 16, pp. 1235-45. 2002
Nature of source Journal paper based on the research work undertaken by researchers at the CRC for Catchment Hydrology.
Brief Description Both papers present the likely impacts of climate change run-off, evapo-transpiration and soil moisture in the more populated and important agricultural regions of Australia. Impacts were estimated by comparing water fluxes simulated by a hydrological model using present climate data with greenhouse-enhanced climate scenarios predicted by general circulation models.
Relevance to topic Evidence of climate change manifestations, water for cities, water for farmers.
Accessibility Abstract available in public domain. Full article needs to be obtained by paying a small fee. We obtained a copy of the article from the author himself.
Finding/Factoid The key conclusion of the 2002 paper is that changes in rainfall are amplified in runoff. In wet and temperate catchments the percentage change in runoff is about twice the percentage change in rainfall, whereas in ephemeral catchments with low runoff coefficients the percentage change in runoff can be more than four times the percentage change in rainfall.

The findings for specific regions include:
  • The catchments west of the Great Dividing Range are drier than the coastal catchments, with run-off coefficients generally less than 15%. The modelling results for these catchments estimate that the +/- 5% change in annual rainfall by 2030 would lead to changes in annual run off of -25 to +15% and a decrease in soil wetness of up to 10%.
  • The water flux simulations indicate that the winter runoff in the coastal catchments in the Southeast Australia could change by -20 to +5% by 2030 and in the catchments draining into the Murray decreases in winter runoff of up to 15% could occur.
  • In the South Australian Gulf, the winter and annual run offs would decrease by 25% and the soil wetness up to 10%.
  • On the south west coast, the change in winter rainfall of -8 to +2% by 2030 would lead to changes in winter and annual runoffs of -25 to +10% and a decrease in soil wetness up to 20%.
Author(s) Chiew, F, Harle, K, Howden, M, Kirby, M, Peel, M, Peel, L, Siriwardena, L and Viney, NR (2003)
Title Climate change projections and the effects on water yield and water demand for the Australian Capital Territory - Part 2
Source/Reference Climate change projections and the effects on water yield and water demand for the Australian Capital Territory, a consultancy report prepared for ACT Electricity and Water, October 2003.
Nature of source Consultancy Report to ACTEW obtained from a contact in Murray Darling Basin Commission.
Brief Description Assessment of the likely water yields in ACT catchments under climate change scenarios are necessary for regional planning for water resources by ACT Government and ACTEW. The consultancy report examines the likely climate in the ACT for the next 70 years (Part 1) as well as the implications of climate change scenarios for water yield in ACT catchments and water demand in the region (Part 2).
Relevance to topic Water for cities
Accessibility Not available in public domain. However, the report is not confidential and therefore accessible. The report in this instance obtained from a contact at Murray Darling Basin Commission.
Finding/Factoid Part 2 of the report examines the implications of climate projections as reported in Part 1 of the report for water yield in the Cotter and Googong catchments and water demand within ACT. The key findings of the report are:
  • Decreases in annual runoff in the ACT up to +20% in 2030 and 50% by 2070
  • Changes in summer/autumn runoff of +5% to -20% by 2030 and +10% to -50% by 2070
  • Changes in winter/spring runoff by -5% to -20% and -10%--50% by 2030 and 2070 respectively, relative to 1900
  • Projected percentage changes in runoff are higher in the Queanybean River catchment than the Cotter River catchment.
  • If the climate change is expressed in mean temperatures, climate related water demand in ACT is predicted to increase by 1%-5% by 2030 and 1% to 16% by 2070. If the climate change is expressed in the frequency of hot periods, preliminary analysis indicates that the increases in demand could be 1.4% to 14% by 2030 and 9% to 38% by 2070.
Author(s) CSIRO (2002)
Title Future Climate Change in Australia
Source/Reference Poster: http://www.dar.csiro.au/publications/cechet_2002a.pdf, accessed 6 January 2003.
Nature of source A CSIRO publication
Brief Description A poster summarizing the impact of climate change in different parts of Australia. A disclaimer on the poster says that it is based on the results from computer models that involve simplification of biophysical processes that are not fully understood.
Relevance to topic Water for cities, farmers and environmental flows.
Accessibility Available from public domain
Finding/Factoid Climate change will lead to less water for cities, agriculture and natural ecosystems in most regions of Australia during the next 70 years.
Author(s) CSIRO (2002)
Title Climate Change and Australia's coastal communities
Source/Reference CSIRO Atmospheric Research
Nature of source Brochure
Brief Description The brochure covers several types of impact on coastal communities, only some of which are relevant to water availability.
Relevance to topic Water for cities and farms
Accessibility Publicly available
Finding/Factoid Annual average rainfall changes tend towards decreases in the south-west and in parts of the south-east and Queensland. Decreases are most pronounced in winter and spring. Some eastern coastal areas may become wetter in summer. Most models simulate an increase in extreme daily rainfall leading to more frequent heavy rainfall events. This can occur even where average rainfall decreases slightly. Reductions in extreme rainfall occur where average rainfall declines significantly. Increases in extreme daily rainfall are likely to be associated with increased flooding and an increased risk of landslides in some areas.

Increases in stream flow are possible in northern Australia, however decreases seem likely for southern Australia due to reductions in rainfall and increased evaporation. Adaptation through increased water use efficiency and demand management strategies is possible in some cases. In south-western Australia, a further reduction in rainfall would seriously affect water supplies for both agriculture and urban communities. More frequent high-intensity rain in some other areas may have some benefits, contributing to groundwater supplies and filling dams.
Author(s) CSIRO (2003)
Title Climate change threat to our natural resources
Source/Reference CSIROnline Media Release Ref 2003/209 - Nov 26, 2003
Nature of source Media release by CSIRO
Brief Description The media release is based on research work by CSIRO Atmospheric Sciences
Relevance to topic Water for ecosystems
Accessibility Public domain
Finding/Factoid
  • The temperature rise and decrease in rainfall will lead to increased drought, greater fire danger, more soil erosion as well as more floods and more intense tropical cyclones in some areas (Dr Barrie Pittock).
  • Australian ecosystems that are likely to be impacted by the climate change include the vulnerable ones like - coral reefs, alpine regions, the southwest of WA, rainforests and rivers (Dr Pittock).
  • Climate change is likely to affect water resources in the key catchments of eastern Australia (Dr Roger Jones).
  • Climate changes will have a negative impact on Australia's biodiversity. Climate change will interact with other stresses on biodiversity - making consideration of climate change a high priority, not an optional extra, for almost all policy and management concerned with biodiversity conservation (Dr Michael Dunlop).
Author(s) CSIRO (2003)
Title More Floods, population: more on the coasts
Source/Reference CSIROnline Media Release Ref 2003/94 - June 05, 2003
Nature of source Media release by CSIRO
Brief Description Media release is based on CSIRO research. For more information on the research work behind the media release contact Dr Debbie Abbs from CSIRO Atmospheric Research on (03) 9239 4660, 0401 716 201, deborah.abbs@csiro.au
Relevance to topic Water for cities
Accessibility Public domain
Finding/Factoid
  • The research by CSIRO found that the combined impact of increasing sea level rise and extreme weather would result in an increase in flood heights.
  • For example, floods in Cairns due to storm surges would cover about twice the size of what is covered today if a 1-in-100 year storm occurred, due to an increase in flood height from 2.6 to 3.0 meters.
  • The number of flood surges is likely to increase due to higher sea level. On average, a storm that would normally be expected every 100 years would hit every 40 years if sea levels rise by 40 cm.
  • In Southern Queensland and northern NSW, the results suggest that damage costs associated with flooding would increase by half if sea level rose by 20 cm, and more than double if sea level were to rise by 40 cm.
  • The researchers also estimate that severe rainfall may become 30% more intense and occur more frequently.
  • Most scientists now agree that by 2040 sea level will rise by 10-40cm, tropical cyclones will increase in intensity and the frequency of extreme rainfall will increase.
  • According to Dr Abbs, Councils such as Gold Coast are aware of climate change and are working with scientists to understand the risks. But more consideration of climate change is needed when planning building developments and infrastructure that will exist for the next 50 years.
Author(s) CSIRO (2004)
Title Climate change to increase extreme rainfall
Source/Reference CSIRO Media Release Ref PR04_198 - Nov 09, 2004
Nature of source Media release by CSIRO
Brief Description Media release is based on CSIRO research. For more information contact Dr Debbie Abbs, CSIRO Atmospheric Research Climate Scientist, deborah.abbs@csiro.au
Relevance to topic Evidence of climate change impacts
Accessibility Public domain
Finding/Factoid The climate of 2040 is likely to bring more intense and more frequent extreme rainfall events to coastal eastern Australia. Extreme rainfall events on a regional scale can be even more extreme than those predicted by scenarios that average over a wider area. The areas of greatest increase in intensity occur over mountainous terrain, inland from Coffs Harbour, Coolangatta and north of Brisbane.
Author(s) CSIRO (2004)
Title Hotter summers, fewer frosts for Australia
Source/Reference CSIROnline Media Release Ref 2004/06 - January 2004
Nature of source Media release by CSIRO
Brief Description Media release is based on CSIRO research. For more information on the research work behind the media release contact Kevin Hennessy, Senior Research Scientist, CSIRO Atmospheric Research on (03) 9239 4536, 0412 117 928, kevin.hennessy@csiro.au
Relevance to topic Water for cities, water for farmers
Accessibility Public domain
Finding/Factoid
  • Number of hot summer days in some Australian cities could double by 2030
  • Based on the modelling undertaken by CSIRO using 9 climate change scenarios, it is expected that Australia will become 0.4 to 2 deg C warmer on average with 10-50% more summer days over 35 deg C
  • According to the same work, climate change would also lead to 20-80% fewer frosts
  • Up to 15% less rainfall is expected in the south and east by 2030, especially in winter and spring. In the southwest, rainfall may decline by up to 20%. This is likely to be associated with more droughts.
  • The Bureau of Meteorology recently announced that 2003 was Australia's 6th warmest year since 1910 and the global average temperature was the 3rd warmest since 1861. The hottest year both globally and within Australia was 1998.
Author(s) CSIRO (2004)
Title You think it's drier but Australia is wetter
Source/Reference CSIRO Media Release - Ref PR04-199 - Nov 10, 2004
Nature of source Media release by CSIRO
Brief Description Media release based on CSIRO research. More information from Ian Smith, CSIRO Atmospheric Research Climate Scientist, ian.smith@csiro.au
Relevance to topic Water for cities, farms, ecosystems; evidence of climate change impacts
Accessibility Publicly available
Finding/Factoid Rainfall has increased over the summer half of the year in large parts of western, northern and central Australia over the period 1952 to 2002.

The trends towards wetter conditions contrast with the long-recognised trend towards drier regional conditions - such as the sudden decrease in rainfall in south-west Western Australia in the mid-1970s, a drying trend over south-east Australia since 1996, and a longer-term drying trend over southern Australia since the 1970s.
Author(s) Deen, AR
Title Planning for Climate Changes in Sydney Water Board
Source/Reference Journal of Hydrology and Water Resources (date and other details unknown)
Nature of source Journal article
Brief Description The paper examines the possible effects of climate change scenarios on Sydney Water Board's operations in general and the water supply headworks in particular.
Relevance to topic Water for cities
Accessibility Document held by ISF (source and accessibility unknown)
Finding/Factoid The study found that:
  • The changes in the demand for water for different climate change scenarios suggested that the headworks augmentation program would not be significantly affected.
  • Increases in probable maximum floods would necessitate expansion of spillway capacity at considerable expense.
Author(s) Donlon, P (2003)
Title Email communication, 16 January 2003
Source/Reference Water Services Association of Australia (WSAA)
Nature of source Email Communication
Brief Description An email sent by WSAA in response to the enquiry about any research or initiative taken by the water utilities who are members of WSAA to address the issue of climate change with respect to its impact on water supply security.
Relevance to topic Water for Cities
Accessibility In the public domain
Finding/Factoid Several water utilities and agencies imposed water restrictions on the towns and cities served by them in the year 2002. Such towns and cities were located in the following areas and regions: Water Corporation (WA), Melbourne Water, Sydney Water, Gosford City Council, Port Macquarie, Western NSW, Ipswich, Gold Coast City Council, ACTEW-AGL Canberra, Hunter (voluntary), Western Water, Central Highlands, Goulburn Valley and Coliban.
Author(s) Evans, J and Schreider, S (2002)
Title Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change on Inflows to Perth, Australia
Source/Reference Climatic Change 55 (3), pp.361-393
Nature of source Journal article
Brief Description Investigates the effects of climate change due to increasing atmospheric CO2 on the major tributaries to the Swan River (Perth, Western Australia).
Relevance to topic Water for Cities
Accessibility Available to journal subscribers
Finding/Factoid Results showed small decreases in mean runoff but increases in rare flood events.
Author(s) Hassall & Associates (1998) for NSW Department of Land and Water Conservation, NSW National Parks and Wildlife, and CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research.
Title Climate Change Scenarios and Managing the Scarce Water Resources of the Macquarie River
Source/Reference A report prepared for Environment Australia (Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Grants Program).
Nature of source A consultancy report quoted and referenced in climate change papers and articles.
Brief Description Based on the High and Low greenhouse gas concentrations and rates of release scenarios developed by CSIRO for Macquarie Valley, scenarios representing impact of climate change were developed and evaluated. The following scenarios and impacts were studied:
  • River flow scenarios to assess the impact of climate change on water availability for irrigation and flows into Macquarie Marshes
  • Economy scenarios for the region resulting from the climate change scenarios
  • Effects of the lower water flow into the Macquarie Marshes, assuming that the rules allocating water were not changed.
Relevance to topic Water for farmers. Water for environment
Accessibility The report is available in public domain
Finding/Factoid The river flow scenarios corresponding to the High and Low greenhouse gas and rates of release climate scenarios showed that the mean annual runoff to Burrendong Dam (the main water storage on the Macquarie River) may be reduced by between 12 and 32 percent respectively. The river flow scenarios implied that the amount available for irrigation was reduced between 27 and 93 GL/year (9 to 27 percent of the base case diversion volume).

The implications of the river flow scenarios for the environment were that the mean annual flows into the Macquarie Marshes were reduced by between 51 and 141 GL/year (11 to 32%).

Potential effects of climate change scenarios on the regional economy were assessed. Negative impacts included lower irrigation water diversions, lower rainfall and higher evaporation. Beneficial impacts included the higher plant growth that would result as a consequence of higher temperature and higher CO2 levels.

The assessment indicated a loss in Gross Revenue of $38 to $152 million dollars per year, or 6 to 22% under the High and Low greenhouse gas scenarios respectively. Livestock industries are expected to be the worst affected, given their scale of operations and the degree to which negative impacts on these industries outweigh beneficial impacts.

The National Parks and Wildlife Services assessed the potential effects of low water flows in the Marshes, which included:
  • A reduction of both semi-permanent and ephemeral wetland vegetation by 20 % to 40% of their original area by 2030
  • Less frequent breeding events for the colonial nesting bird species
  • Depending on the other impacts of the climate scenarios on the species, local, regional and global extinctions are possible. Consequently, Australia would fail to meet its obligations to conserve and manage wetlands for future generations, under various international conventions (e.g. Ramsar Convention on Wetlands of International Importance, Japan Australia Migratory Bird Agreement, the China Australia Migratory Bird Agreement and the International Convention on Biological Diversity).
Author(s) Hassall & Associates (1998) for NSW Department of Land and Water Conservation, NSW National Parks and Wildlife, and CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research.
Title Climate Change Scenarios and Managing the Scarce Water Resources of the Macquarie River
Source/Reference A report prepared for Environment Australia (Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Grants Program)
Nature of source A consultancy report quoted and referenced in climate change papers and articles.
Brief Description The study investigated climate change impacts using cutting edge scientific models. The results from the modelling were presented to the community and stakeholders at a community conference in Dubbo, NSW. The community were informed about:
  • What are the scenarios for climate change for this catchment?
  • What effects will projected climate change have on the economy of the region?
  • What effects will projected climate change have on the ecology of the region?
The community participants were invited to present their views on what the population of the region might do about climate change. They identified both adaptive strategies (strategies for adjusting to the effects of climate change) and avoidance strategies (strategies for decreasing the likelihood or extent of climate change).
Relevance to topic Solutions
Accessibility The report is available in public domain.
Finding/Factoid Adaptive strategies discussed by the community included:
  • Changing water allocation rules
  • Increasing water use efficiency
  • Long-term strategies such as crop breeding and selection of plants to exploit possible differences in rainfall, temperature and carbon dioxide concentrations.
Avoidance strategies discussed by the community included:
  • Increasing energy efficiency
  • Decreasing emissions of greenhouse gases
  • Increasing tree planting and the effectiveness of sinks
The community also noted a very high level of inefficiency of water delivery in some of the Macquarie irrigation schemes. The participants were of the view that much more can be done and will have to be done to increase the efficiency of water use in Macquarie. Irrigators at the conference indicated that they would be looking to increase efficiency in water use by at least 30%.
Author(s) Hennessy, K McInnes, K, Abbs, D, Jones, R, Bathols, J, Suppiah, R, Ricketts, J, Rafter, T, Collins, D and Jones, D
Title Climate Change in New South Wales Part 2: Projected changes in climate extremes
Source/Reference Available on CSIRO website: http://www.dar.csiro.au/publications/hennessy_2004c.pdf
Nature of source Consultancy report for the NSW Greenhouse Office by CSIRO Atmospheric Research and the Bureau of Meteorology
Brief Description Presents the results of future climate scenarios for NSW developed by the CSIRO, focusing on regionally-specific changes in droughts, extreme temperatures, heavy rainfall, strong winds, extreme weather systems and storm tides.
Relevance to topic Water for cities, farmers and environmental flows
Accessibility Publicly available
Finding/Factoid By the year 2030, the frequency of drought in NSW is increased by about 70% for the worst case scenario (decreased rainfall) and decreased by 35% for the best case scenario (increased rainfall). The range of uncertainty is much larger by 2070 when drought frequency could increase by more than 200% or decrease by up to 70%.

While much of NSW shows a tendency towards drier seasonal-average conditions under enhanced greenhouse conditions, it does not necessarily follow that extreme daily rainfall events will become less frequent or severe. Previous studies have indicated marked increases in the intensity and frequency of extreme daily rainfall events under enhanced greenhouse conditions for the Australian region.

The highest likelihood of an increase in annual and summer rainfall extremes occurs in central and south-east NSW. A small region of likely increase also occurs in the north-east. An increase in intensity of annual and summer extreme rainfall is less likely in the south-west of the state. Increases in the intensity of autumn and winter extreme rainfall are most likely to occur west of the Great Dividing Range in the north-central, north-west and south-central regions. The majority of models show a decrease in rainfall extremes along the coast in autumn and winter. Most models project an increase in the intensity of extreme rainfall in spring and summer on the north-east coast and decreases in winter in the southeast. The central regions of NSW are most likely to experience increased rainfall extremes, especially in autumn and winter.
Author(s) Howden, SM, McKeon, GM, Meinke, H, Entel, M and Flood, N (2001)
Title Impacts of climate change and climate variability on the competitiveness of wheat and beef cattle production in Emerald, north-east Australia
Source/Reference Environment International 27, pp.155-160
Nature of source Journal article
Brief Description Discusses the potential for climate change and climate variability to impact the competitiveness of agriculture
Relevance to topic Water for farms
Accessibility Available to journal subscribers
Finding/Factoid Cropping patterns that develop during periods of climate variability or climate change may not be sustainable when the more normal climate is re-established or climate change continues.
Author(s) Hughes, GJ
Title Meeting the challenge of climate variability in a major water supply system
Source/Reference Paper no - e21618a, In Proceedings of Enviro 2002, Melbourne.
Nature of source Conference Paper
Brief Description The paper summarises the findings of a seminar and workshop that brought together key international, national and local people from University of Washington (Seattle), the Bureau of Meteorology, the CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research, Oceanography and Water Resources, the Centre for Water Research (University of Western Australia), the Department of Conservation and Land Management, the Water Corporation and the Water and Rivers Commission with knowledge of climate variability and change and their impacts on water supply for the south west of Western Australia.
Relevance to topic Water for cities
Accessibility Conference Proceedings CD-ROM
Finding/Factoid
  • There had been a marked decrease in annual rainfall over almost all of the southwest and if consequent reductions in stream flow are sustained there will be serious implications for the reliability of water supplies.
  • The Perth water supply was at greatest risk to the ongoing impact of climate variability.
  • A prudent approach is to continue to implement water use efficiency measures and to investigate options for responding to sustained low rainfall sequence.
  • A joint research effort between the Water an Rivers Commission and the Water Corporation is now developing an updated computer model of the Perth Groundwater Basin to assess climate impacts and investigate management strategies for resource utilization.
Author(s) Indian Ocean Climate Initiative (2002)
Title Climate variability and change in south west Western Australia
Source/Reference Indian Ocean Climate Initiative Panel, Perth, pp. iii and 4-6.
Nature of source Report published by Indian Ocean Climate Initiative. Dr Neville Nicholls is the main author of the report.
Brief Description The report documents the findings of a 5-year study of climatic variability in southwestern Australia. The report is written with the specific objective of interpreting the research findings for the benefit of decision-makers involved in climate-affected industries and in natural resource management of the region.
Relevance to topic Water for cities
Accessibility Available from public domain.
Finding/Factoid The key findings of the research included:
  • The winter rainfall in the southwest of Western Australia has sharply and suddenly decreased since 1970s by about 15-20%. It was not a gradual decline but more of a switching into an alternative rainfall regime.
  • The reduction in winter rainfall resulted in even sharper fall in stream-flow in the southwest.
  • The effects of changes in rainfall are amplified in terms of runoff to storage areas for water supply. This effect is demonstrated by the 42 per cent reduction in annual inflow to Perth's surface water supply since the mid-1970s in response to a 15-20 per cent decrease in rainfall in that same period.
  • The decrease in rainfall, and the associated circulation changes, bears some resemblance to changes most climate models project for an enhanced greenhouse effect and on that basis it is most likely that along with natural variability, the enhanced greenhouse effect also has contributed to the rainfall decrease.
Author(s) Jones, RN and Page, CM (2001)
Title Assessing the Risk of Climate Change on the Water Resources of the Macquarie River Catchment
Source/Reference In Integrating Models for Natural Resources Management across Disciplines, Issues and Scales (Volume 2), Ghassemi, F, Whetton, P, Little, R and Littleboy, M (eds.) Proceedings of Modsim 2001: International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, Canberra.
Nature of source Paper from conference proceedings. The authors are from CSIRO Atmospheric Research Division.
Brief Description The paper aims to show how the limitations of individual scenarios can be overcome by combining two different types of modelling methods to estimate the probability of exceeding a given critical threshold. The paper further illustrates the approach by using results from an assessment of climate change on water resources in the Macquarie River Catchment.
Relevance to topic Water for environmental flows.
Accessibility Article can be obtained from Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand located in Canberra.
Finding/Factoid The "best bet" changes to Burrendong Dam storage, Macquarie Marsh inflows and irrigation allocations in 2030 are 0% to -15%, and in 2070 are 0% to -35%.
Author(s) Jones, R and Page, C (2002)
Title Climate Change and the Risk to Long-term Water Supply in the Murray Darling Basin
Source/Reference In Synthesis Report of River Symposium on Murray-Darling Basin Dialogue on Water and Climate, Brisbane, September 2002 (compiled and edited by Awadhesh Prasad and Shahbaz Khan). The report is available in public domain and downloadable from www.wac.ihe.nl/dialogue/Basin/Murray-Darling/ documents/Murray-Darling Report.pdf
Nature of source Conference Proceedings
Brief Description Section 4 in the Synthesis Report compiles the presentations of various stakeholders at the symposium. The author of this presentation is Scientist at CSIRO Atmospheric Science.
Relevance to topic Water for Healthy Rivers. Water for Farmers
Accessibility The report is available in public domain and downloadable from a website.
Finding/Factoid According to the work done by Jones on the impact of climate change on Murray Darling basin:
  • Winter and spring rainfall in most parts of the basin is likely to experience changes between +1% to -15%. As most of the rainfall that contributes to run-off in the Southern part of the Basin occurs during winter and spring, water availability in the Basin is likely to be significantly reduced.
  • In some northern areas of the Basin, increase or decrease in winter and spring are equally likely. The summer and autumn rainfall is more likely to increase in the northern areas of the Basin. However, in the southern parts of the Basin summer and autumn rainfall is more likely to decrease. This will increase the demand for irrigation water in these areas.
  • A study of Macquarie catchment - the only study of its kind in Australia - was undertaken to assess the risks of reduction in water availability in catchments resulting from climate change. The study found that change in water availability ranged from 10% increase to 30% decrease. However, the likeliest outcome ranges from 0% to 15% decrease with 90% probability of 15% decrease.
  • The study concluded that the decrease in water availability would result in two critical thresholds being reached:

    • For 5 consecutive years, irrigation supply will represent less than 50% allocation of water rights
    • For 10 consecutive years, wetlands will receive water below the amount needed for bird breeding events.
Author(s) Jones, RN and Pittock, AB (2002)
Title Climate change and water resources in an arid continent: managing uncertainty and risk in Australia
Source/Reference In: Beniston, M (2002), Climatic Change: Implications for the Hydrological Cycle and for Water Management
Nature of source Chapter in book
Brief Description Australian modelling study reported in an international book on impacts of climate change on water resources
Relevance to topic Water for farmers
Accessibility Book is available online through SpringerLink
Finding/Factoid Provides results of an impact modelling and risk assessment exercise for the Macquarie River, a catchment within the eastern portion of the Murray-Darling Basin. The study finds a significant risk to water resources in the catchment. Two critical thresholds tied to irrigation allocations and environmental flows have greater than a 1 in 3 chance of being exceeded by 2030, if a drought dominated rainfall regime coincides with a climate change occurring within the range expected. If baseline rainfall is normal, the likelihood that critical thresholds will be exceeded by 2030 is less than approximately 5%. The most likely range of change in mean water supply in 2030 (between a probability of 10% and 90%) is 0 to -15%.

Recent reductions in winter rainfall in south-western Australia have led to AU$ 275 million being spent on drought-proofing for Perth.

The model simulated decreases in winter-spring rainfall over the southern half of the continent and increases in evaporation. Changes in summer-autumn rainfall are biased towards increases, especially in the north.

Based on climate projections, any reductions in water supply experienced by the Macquarie catchment are likely to be more widespread, threatening water supply in south-eastern and south-western Australia. Climate projections show that reductions in winter-spring rainfall combined with increased evaporation will lead to reduced flows, unless summer rainfall increases can compensate. In the Macquarie, this compensation occurs in only two of the models we examined, both from the same laboratory.

Therefore, planned adaptations to implement market reform, ameliorate salinity, make agriculture more productive, rehabilitate degraded lands and to protect natural habitat should factor in management for reduced rainfall and water supply and increased water demand. Our assessment also shows that system failure, measured by two critical thresholds for irrigation allocations and for environmental flows, is possible by 2030.
Author(s) Karoly, D, Risbey, J and Reynolds, A (2003)
Title Global Warming Contributes to Australia's Worst Drought
Source/Reference World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF). Available from http://www.wwf.org.au/, accessed 29 January 2003.
Nature of source Research article published by WWF on its website
Brief Description The article is based on the analysis of weather pattern anomalies in 2002. The article also makes references to previous research undertaken by Karoly, D and Nicholls, N and other climate change research publications by CSIRO and IPCC.
Relevance to topic Evidence of climate change impact, water for farmers.
Accessibility In the public domain
Finding/Factoid The drought of 2002 has had a more severe impact than any other drought since at least 1950, because the temperatures in 2002 have been significantly higher than in other drought years. The higher temperatures caused a marked increase in evaporation rates, which sped up the loss of soil moisture and the drying of vegetation and watercourses. The 2002 drought is the first drought in Australia where the impact of human-induced global warming can be clearly observed.

Other findings and observations reported in the article included:
  • Australia experienced its lowest March-November rainfall of 14.1mm/month, which was less than 50% of normal. The country experienced an average maximum temperature 1 degree C higher than the average maximum temperature experience during previous 4 droughts since 1950.
  • The impact of drought was intensified in the Murray Darling Basin as the basin experienced average maximum temperatures more than 1.2 degree C higher than in any previous droughts since 1950 and it received its lowest ever March-November rainfall of 18.3mm which is only 45% of the normal. The higher temperatures led to greater evaporation, exacerbating the drought. Higher evaporation rates make it difficult to sow crops, place existing crops under stress and take water from rivers and reservoirs.
  • The higher maximum temperatures combined with drier conditions have also created greater bushfire danger than in previous droughts.
Author(s) Khan, S (2002)
Title A presentation made at the River Symposium, Brisbane, September 2002 (actual title of presentation is not known)
Source/Reference In Synthesis Report of River Symposium on Murray-Darling Basin Dialogue on Water and Climate, Brisbane, September 2002 (compiled and edited by Awadhesh Prasad and Shahbaz Khan).
Nature of source The report is available in public domain and downloadable from www.wac.ihe.nl/dialogue/Basin/Murray-Darling/ documents/Murray-Darling%20Report.pdf
Brief Description Section 4 in the Synthesis Report compiles the presentations of various stakeholders at the symposium. The author of this presentation is Irrigation Scientist at CSIRO Land and Water.
Relevance to topic Water for Healthy Rivers. Water for Farmers
Accessibility The report is available in public domain and downloadable from a website.
Finding/Factoid A rainfall index known as the Standard Precipitation Index (which uses a statistical technique) has been developed and successfully applied at CSIRO Land and Water to explain the impact of climate variability on movement of shallow groundwater tables in the region. Personal enquiry with Dr Khan about publication of research findings suggested that there are not any publications as yet as the research is ongoing.
Author(s) Maheepala, S (2002)
Title Climate Change and Reliability of Urban Water Supply
Source/Reference Water Science and Technology, Vol 47 No 9, pp101-108, 2003.
Nature of source Research paper published in a peer-reviewed journal. The author is a research member of CSIRO Urban Water Division.
Brief Description CSIRO Urban Water undertook a study to assess the impact of climate change on the urban water supply system for Benalla, a town in Northern Victoria. This study aimed to develop a generic framework for the assessment of climate change impacts on urban water supply systems and the effectiveness of adaptation measures.

The study assessed the impact of global warming scenarios as agreed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change on the Benalla urban water supply system by superimposing the scenarios on stochastically generated evaporation and rainfall data.
Relevance to topic Water for cities
Accessibility The article is in the public domain.
Finding/Factoid The study predicted the following changes in mean annual rainfall, evaporation and inflow under a 2030 climate change scenario:
  • Decrease in mean annual rainfall by 2.1%
  • Increase in mean annual evaporation by 6.1%
  • Reduction in mean annual inflow to the supply system by 24.8%
The results of the study showed that there is more than 70% probability of
  • Mean annual flow reducing by 15%
  • Yield reducing by 8% (or 304 ML)
It was found that Benalla's water supply system had sufficient capacity to absorb the impacts of the 2030 climate change scenario unless water demand experiences a sudden increase during the period.

The methodology developed by CSIRO Urban Water is useful for quantifying climate change impacts and incorporating them into water management strategies. The method was found to be robust as it is also capable of estimating the uncertainty associated with climate change scenarios.
Author(s) Miles, B and Stone, R (2003)
Title Sustaining Regions with a Changing Climate
Source/Reference Proceedings of 7th National Sustainable Economic Growth for Regional Australia Conference, Gold Coast
Nature of source Conference paper
Brief Description Discusses the link between climate change and a permanent El Nino state in Australia, rainfall decline and its implications. Reports on a workshop on this issue held in Rockhampton in 2003.
Relevance to topic Water for cities, farms and ecosystems; evidence of climate change impacts
Accessibility Publicly available from the Institute for Sustainable Regional Development: http://www.isrd.cqu.edu.au/about/about_f.htm
Finding/Factoid The Southern Oscillation Index shows an apparent trend since about 1970 towards prevailing El Nino conditions. The IPCC believes that climate change will create El Nino like mean conditions in the southern Pacific.

There is evidence of long-term rainfall decline along the east coast of Australia (particularly the central Queensland coast) and in south-western Australia over the past 100 years.

Policy implications include potential for water shortages and need to improve supply reliability, threats to community health from southward spread of communicable diseases, shifts in tourism, rationalisation of agricultural industries, water quality and infrastructure planning.
Author(s) Nicholls, N (2004)
Title The Changing Nature of Australian Droughts
Source/Reference Climatic Change 63, pp.323-336
Nature of source Journal article
Brief Description Discusses the possibility that the enhanced greenhouse effect is increasing the severity of Australian droughts.
Relevance to topic Water for cities, farms and ecosystems; evidence of climate change impacts
Accessibility Available to journal subscribers
Finding/Factoid Through comparison of droughts in 1982, 1994 and 2002, it appears that the nature of drought in Australia is changing. The 2002 drought was characterised by higher temperatures than previous droughts, bringing greater evaporation and evapotranspiration and causing more severe impacts. It is likely that the severity of droughts will continue to increase as climate change continues.
Author(s) Pittock, B (ed) (2003)
Title Climate Change: An Australian Guide to the Science and Potential Impacts
Source/Reference Published by the Australian Greenhouse Office
Nature of source Book
Brief Description Draws together recent climate science and work on climate change impacts focusing on Australia. There is a highly relevant section on the potential impacts of climate change on water supply and hydrology in Australia.
Relevance to topic Water for cities, farmers, environmental flows and ecosystems, evidence of climate change impact
Accessibility Publicly available
Finding/Factoid Australia has relatively high interannual and interdecadal rainfall variability, such that the storage capacities of Australia's large dams are about six times larger than those of European dams for the same mean annual streamflow and probability of water shortfall.

Adelaide and Perth are the metropolitan areas that are most vulnerable to future water supply problems, including increasing levels of salinity.

Modelling results suggest a longer and more intense Australian Monsoon, leading to greater water surpluses in northern areas where human use is low. In southern mainland Australia, reductions in water supply are much more likely. Tasmania may experience increased water supply. Climate change is likely to add to stresses driving the current water allocation and policy debates. It will also influence salinity and water quality, although these impacts have not been well studied.
Author(s) Prasad, A (2002)
Title Evidence, Stakeholder Perspectives and Adaptation Options for Climate Change in Murray Darling Basin
Source/Reference In Synthesis Report of River Symposium on Murray-Darling Basin Dialogue on Water and Climate, Brisbane, September 2002 (compiled and edited by Awadhesh Prasad and Dr Shahbaz Khan). The report is available in public domain and downloadable from www.wac.ihe.nl/dialogue/Basin/Murray-Darling/ documents/Murray-Darling%20Report.pdf
Nature of source Conference Proceedings
Brief Description Section 4 in the Synthesis Report compiles the presentations of various stakeholders at the symposium. The author of this presentation is Water Resource Manager for the Murray Darling Basin Commission, charged with the responsibility of meeting the competing demands of water users and maintaining the environment and ecology of the water sources in the Murray Darling River Basin.
Relevance to topic Water for Healthy Rivers. Water for Farmers
Accessibility The report is available in public domain and downloadable from a website.
Finding/Factoid For a Water Resource Manager, the problem of climate variability and change affects both the sharing of water resources and the rate of environmental degradation (e.g. salinity). Water resource managers are supportive of research that develops tools enabling managers to allocate water based on climatic factors. These factors could ideally be predicted in advance with certain degree of confidence.

Although existing research funding is focused on short-term climate variability, MDBC recognizes the need to allocate funds for research into climate change and has made submissions to the Australian Federal Parliament's House of Representative Water Enquiry advocating continuing federal support for research into climate change.
Author(s) Warner, R (2002)
Title Some Possible Implications of Global Warming on the Hawkesbury-Nepean
Source/Reference Prepared for the Hawkesbury-Nepean River Management Forum, June 2002.
Nature of source Needs to be used with caution as the paper is based on an extrapolation of results from Jones and Page (2001) and other similar works that have been carried out on a different catchment.
Brief Description The paper outlines some of the current concerns with global warming and considers their impact on Hawkesbury-Nepean.
Relevance to topic Water for environmental flows.
Accessibility Not available in public domain. To be obtained from Hawkesbury-Nepean River Management Forum
Finding/Factoid With a dominance of negative trends in rainfall and higher temperatures [as a result of climate change], there is an indication of much lower runoff and a considerable depletion of water resource. Even without global warming but a return to a [Drought Dominated Climate], conditions would be similar to those experienced in the first half of the 20th Century, where water resources were far short of those required today. With higher greenhouse temperatures and evaporative losses, the reduction in water resources would be such as to require much more extreme responses like demand management, water reuse, better urban design, and use of alternative sources of water supply such as desalination and urban water harvesting. Such implications are severe enough for urban and irrigation water; they could be calamitous for environmental flows.

1.2 Additional references